Summary
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), estimated new vehicle demand for 2018*1 is 29.9 million vehicles (January 2018). Sales of passenger vehicles are expected to see a year-over-year (y/y) increase of 3%, while the sales of commercial vehicles are expected to see a y/y increase of 1%. SUV models are expected to continue to lead the market in sales and are expected to surpass those of sedans.
The tax incentive policy for compact vehicles with an engine displacement of 1.6 liters or less ended in December 2017. But, starting in January 2018, new policies were introduced exempting New Energy Vehicles (NEV) from vehicle purchase taxes for a three year period. Automakers are now developing production systems to accommodate the NEV credit scheme that will be implemented starting in 2019.
LMC Automotive of the U.K. is forecasting a slight y/y increase of 2.1% for 2018 Chinese light vehicle sales (passenger cars and compact vehicles with a GVW of 6 tons or less, including imports) to 29.2 million vehicles sold.
Although some automakers have announced their 2018 sales goals/production plans, many automakers are taking a more cautious stance, with some not announcing sales goals/production plans.
*1: Chinese market demand = wholesale - exports of finished vehicles + imports of finished vehicles.
Related Reports:
Chinese Battery Manufacturer Response to EV Growth (Mar. 2018)
The current situation of China's NEV market (Jan. 2018)
VW, Daimler, and BMW's NEV strategies for the Chinese marker (Nov. 2017)
BYD: Leading China's EV market, pressing ahead with battery resource development (Oct. 2017)
Local Reconstruction Note
This article has been expanded from the visible local mirror text, headings, tags, image captions, tables, and related local article titles. It is presented as a reconstructed reading version, not as a hidden original document.
China Association of Automobile Manufacturers 2018 sales forecast
The source outline identifies this section as part of “2018 China Market Forecast: 29.98 million units; automakers cautious”. Based on the available local metadata, this section should be read through the lens of Hozon, Jiangling, SINOTRUK, Own Brand, Hawtai, Sales Forecast and the visible introduction, figures, captions, and tables.
New energy vehicle sales forecast: A 28.7% increase in 2018 to 1 million vehicles
The source outline identifies this section as part of “2018 China Market Forecast: 29.98 million units; automakers cautious”. Based on the available local metadata, this section should be read through the lens of Hozon, Jiangling, SINOTRUK, Own Brand, Hawtai, Sales Forecast and the visible introduction, figures, captions, and tables.
Chinese automaker's sales projections for 2018: Companies are being cautious
The source outline identifies this section as part of “2018 China Market Forecast: 29.98 million units; automakers cautious”. Based on the available local metadata, this section should be read through the lens of Hozon, Jiangling, SINOTRUK, Own Brand, Hawtai, Sales Forecast and the visible introduction, figures, captions, and tables.
Sales forecast by LMC Automotive: Chinese light vehicle market has modest growth and reaches 32.5 million units in 2021
The source outline identifies this section as part of “2018 China Market Forecast: 29.98 million units; automakers cautious”. Based on the available local metadata, this section should be read through the lens of Hozon, Jiangling, SINOTRUK, Own Brand, Hawtai, Sales Forecast and the visible introduction, figures, captions, and tables.
Related Local Signals
Nearby records in the local archive include Taipei AMPA 2026: Foxconn’s EV Technology; Smart Energy Week 2026: Batteries and Charging; Electrified Vehicle (xEV) Sales Monthly Report (March 2026); Geely i-HEV Intelligent Hybrid Technology Presentation. These titles can be used as adjacent evidence when comparing suppliers, technologies, markets, and reporting periods.