GlobalData European Passenger Car Sales Update (July 2024)

Summary

• The Western Europe PV selling rate disappointed in July, at 11.2 mn units/year, returning to the levels seen pre-June. PV registrations fell 0.2% YoY to 916k units. Even though YTD sales are up 3.3%, we now expect most of this to unwind over the remainder of the year given the general weakness we have being seeing in selling rates recently.
• Following an improvement in the selling rate in June, Western Europe returned to the more subdued levels last month. There is a combination of headwinds to market activity that look unlikely to ease significantly anytime soon. Interest rates remain high, even though first moves to loosen monetary policy have now been made by the ECB and the Bank of England. Vehicle pricing is still elevated — despite the supply constraints that caused the sharp uptick in vehicle prices in recent years having faded — and does not show signs of a major downward revision in the near-term. Meanwhile, the BEV market is also losing momentum. We now forecast the full year result to only just eclipse 2023.